In order to provide opportunities for increasing knowledge through networking and information sharing to better predict drought events, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) established the Pacific North West Drought Early Warning System (PNW DEWS). To this end, the NIDIS is requesting in-put on drought-related projects and activities that are going on throughout the Pacific North West and in Southern Alaska regions. This information will be displayed on the Drought.gov website (to be re-launched in late Spring 2020).
For more information about the types of activities NIDIS wants to feature on the website and to submit activities, click here. (The form takes about 10 minutes to complete).
In light of experience the first drought experienced in the Southern region of Alaska and likely to continue in years to come, WPC’s asked about whether the NIDIS is planning to establish an Alaska DEWS. In response Britt Parker – the Coordinator of the Pacific Northwest DEWS stated “[w]e are working with partners to identify ways to provide more support for Alaska! While I do not think it will result in setting up a DEWS immediately, we are looking at options for the long term while identifying research and efforts to better understand drought in Alaska in the short term.
Another great resource that can assist in forecasting drought and stream flows in Alaska is the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network (CoCoRahs). The contact information for the CoCoRahs Alaska Coordinator is:
Martin Stuefer
Alaska State Climatologist
Alaska Climate Research Center
University of Alaska Fairbanks
2156 Koyukuk Drive
P.O. Box 757320
Fairbanks, Alaska 99775-7320
907-474-6477 mstuefer@alaska.edu
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Federal Subsistence Management Program will continue conducting a water temperature monitoring project for the next two summers at rivers and streams throughout Alaska. This effort is associated with fisheries monitoring projects funded through the Fisheries Resource Monitoring Program (Program), and has been ongoing since 2008. According to the Program, temperature can impact fish through changes in metabolic rate, primary production, respiration, growth, decomposition, water chemistry, migration timing and susceptibility to disease. At the same time “[d]evelopment adjacent to stream habitats…as well as changes in climate can potentially cause fluctuations in water temperature beyond the behavioral and physiological tolerance of aquatic organisms, including fish, that could have a deleterious effect on their productivity and availability to subsistence users.”
Federal, State, and Tribal organizations in Alaska are currently collecting water temperature data for such subsistence streams. The Program is looking to highlight the importance of uniform data collection, standardization, and reporting, to ensure that such data is reliable for monitoring climate change and supporting conservation actions.
The Alaska Online Aquatic Temperature Site (AKOATS) platform, hosted by the University of Alaska Anchorage’s Alaska Center for Conservation Science, is currently used to make this data available to the public. The platform was developed with the idea that it would serve as a centralized location to access stream temperature monitoring data collection across Alaska.
Scientists from multiple agencies, working collaboratively to supply data to the Arctic Integrated Ecosystem Research Program, are detecting rapid changes in the Bering and Chukchi Seas. These changes are driven by abnormally high water temperatures and rapid loss of sea ice (on par with climate predictions for 2040), and include high numbers of Pacific cod and pollock expanding into Arctic waters, higher concentrations of harmful algal blooms, and a sea bird die-off that began in 2014 impacting puffins, common murre and, most recently, short-tailed shearwaters. At the base of the food web, larger, high-fat copepods are declining while smaller, copepods with a lower-fat content are flourishing. This means less nutrition for Arctic cod, while, at the same time, more competition for these resources as pollock expand their range northward.
But these troubling changes are not limited to northern ocean waters. Inland, freshwater rivers in the Arctic are overheating. Record-warm temperatures in July, 2019 caused heat stress and a mass die-off in returning, pre-spawned salmon. Read more.
In total, the Arctic research salmon program estimates that in 2019 roughly 2,000 salmon samples have been provided to them – almost triple the number from 19 years of monitoring harvesters and this number appears to be rising.
Similarly, Pink salmon have spread to parts of northern Europe after being released into rivers in Russia in the 1960s. Unprecedented numbers of the fish were found in Scottish rivers in 2017 and they were seen again in 2019 on the Dee which flows through Aberdeenshire, the Tweed which passes through the Borders, Kyle of Sutherland which is an estuary in the east Highlands and the River Ness which flows through Inverness and into Loch Ness when in September, a lone male was captured on one of our underwater surveillance cameras.”
In the end of August myself, my wife Jessica and our neighbors were dropped off at the Jakolof Bay public boat dock by the water Taxi with our sea kayaks. We paddled to the head of the Bay where we beached the kayaks to walk a short way up the mouth of Jakolof Creek, to view several pools full of stranded Pink Salmon and some minnows probably Coho Smolts resulting from extremely dry conditions in the Kachemak Bay Watershed this summer. After leaving the mouth we walked along the road to the Red Mountain trail head until it connected with the Creek again about 2/3 of a mile up from the mouth were the Creek was bone dry for as far as the eye could see.
Unusually hot and dry weather this year as resulted in Jakolof Creek running completely dry starting in mid-July all the way up to the switchbacks and is still receding. Similarly, portions of nearby Kingfisher Creek are currently running dry.
As of this writing, all that remains of the creeks are intermittent pools of water containing stranded Coho smolt and some pinks, dogs, and Dolly Varden which are dying in these rapidly receding pools. Some small bears, eagles, and other birds are feeding on these fish but there are still many that are not getting used. According to Michael Ophiem, environmental program Director for the Seldovia Village Tribe: “We will certainly see the damage done in the upcoming years. This run of fish has been used for a resource for those who live in the area for many years. Some people who don’t have access to boats to get to other fishing sites are more heavily reliant on this run than others.”
This is the second time in 4 years that Jakolof Creek has dried up resulting in a mass die-off of all of the fish in the system at the time. Because streams within the Kachemak Bay Watershed are primarily fed by snow melt, they are extremely sensitive to winters with little snow and followed by hot dry summers which, like Jackolof can result in no water being available at critical times for fish and wildlife or too much water during winter months that can cause flooding or scouring of stream beds.
According to Micheal Brubaker, Editer of the Leo Network newsletter in regards to the Creek, “another year with a lost generation of salmon and other fish. The one difference this year is that the returns (at least so far) of pinks are smaller and the creek appears to have dried up two weeks earlier. This raises concerns not only about the future of this stream as a salmon spawning location but also about food security for the area….”
My wife Jessica and I spent a weekend last July in Hope, Alaska in order to get away from computers for a couple of days and enjoy one of our favorite escapes in one of the most picturesque places in the state. As we set up camp, we were alarmed by the number of birch trees with brown leaves. Weeks of drought due to a high pressure system that’s brought record-breaking heat has deflect storm systems farther north, preventing rainfall throughout the Kenai Peninsula and drying out the plant life. During a couple of hikes along the trails outside the campground it was evident that not only the trees had been affected. Fern, Devils club, fire weed and other plants were shriveled and dying.
While extreme drought is commonplace these days in the lower 48, the phenomenon has been all but unheard-of in Alaska…until this summer. For the second month in a row, at our house, we have been rationing water due to weeks without rain and increasingly diminishing re-charge of a shared well. The drought is similarly affecting Southcentral Alaskan communities that rely on snow pack and rain water for water.
According to a recent article in the Anchorage Daily News, entire forests in Southeast “are falling prey to spruce bark beetles and hemlock sawflys, which are taking advantage of a lack of rainfall and higher than average temperatures.” Similarly, while dry weather has also forced cuts in hydropower production in South central Alaska, an atmospheric river, consisting of a deluge of rain water from the tropical Pacific Ocean, has been drenching northern sections of Alaska and similarly disrupting hydropower and other infrastructure in that area.
In early July, I headed out with a research team from the Native Village of Elim to the Vulcan Creek gage site (30 miles up the Tubutulik River in Western Alaska) to install a new Level & Barrow Logger which collect stream depth and temperature continuously to re-place damaged equipment from a couple of years earlier. There was a pressing need to install the new equipment because we had heard reports just a few days previously of large salmon die-offs in the Shaktoolik and Unalakleet due to temperatures reported to be as high as 70 – 90°F and lower water levels, most likely resulting in low dissolved oxygen in shallow sections of rivers and the suffocation of fish.
As expected, while traveling to the stream flow measuring Gage Site the River, we observed hundreds of otherwise healthy (not spawned-out) dead fish including Pink and Chum salmon and white fish. When we got to the gage site we took temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) readings indicating the water was between 61– 64 degrees and DO as low as 8 milligrams per liter (a healthy stream should be 9 milligrams per liter or higher) When we returned to the gage site a few weeks later, we collected more data that showed temperature stayed high (around 58-60 degrees for the next several days before dropping down to a more normal 54 degrees.
Wes Jones, Development Director for Research with the Norton Sound Economic Development Corporation’s Fisheries says the scope of the “larger than normal salmon die-off last month covered several communities from east to west in the Norton Sound region” including Kotlik, Elim, Unalakleet, Shaktoolik, Golovin, Kotlik, Alakanuk and Akyak. Jones says that although salmon die-offs often occur naturally, “for this many to die so early in the spawning season could be a tipping point indicating a larger ecosystem shift in the Norton Sound region as a result of warming waters.”
Salmon streams in the Norton Sound region, however, were not the only ones affected by Alaska’s summer of 2019 heat wave. In early July, temperatures over 81 F were recorded in southcentral Alaska. This resulted, in salmon spawning stream temperatures exceeding 80 degrees for the first time ever. One such river – the Deshka produces more than 20% of the chinook escapements for the Susitna River watershed which drains the Alaskan Mountain Range.
Other rivers on the Kenai Peninsula similarly set temperature records in July. The Anchor River, for example, was recorded at 73 degrees. For spawning adult salmon or growing juvenile, temperatures above 80 degrees can be lethal, primarily due to the loss of oxygen in the water and the fact that warm water makes fish lethargic and, therefore, susceptible to predation. High temperatures and drought conditions combined with low snow pack this summer, caused the Jackoloff River on the other side of Kachemak Bay from my home to dry up completely for the second time in four yours, resulting in a die-off of Pink salmon returning to spawn and Silver smolts trapped in rapidly diminishing pools of water.
In short, it’s time to stop sugar coating it and accept the fact that Alaska’s freshwater ecosystems are collapsing – and it’s our carbon addicted society that’s causing it. According to Peter Westley, assistant professor of fisheries conservation and fisheries ecology at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, the state’s fish die-off is “directly in line with the predictions of what scientists…have been warning is likely to occur, and we need to prepare ourselves and not be surprised when it happens again in the future, because it will.” Only problem, according to Sue Mauger, Science Director with Cook Inlete Keeper, is that “We’re 50 years ahead of where we thought they would be.”
We should realize that we probably cannot stop the freshwater habitat collapse from occurring but maybe we can slow it down. One strategy comes from Stephanie Quinn-Davison, Director ofthe Yukon River Inter-Tribal fish commission. who suggests initiating a network of locals from native village communities to monitor temperature, low flows, dissolved oxygen in nearby rivers to try and anticipate salmon die-offs before they occur. Similarly, calling it a “water emergency” for south central Alaska, the Leo Network is tracking impacts from the regional drought and request that Network members post observation to the website. Finally, Michael Ophiem with the Seldovia Village Tribe says that they have begun identifying habitat in the Jackaloff Creek watershed were water levels and temperature are currently adequate for salmon spawning and plan to purchase a wet incubator for out-planting eggs to those areas.
For our part, WPC will continue to assist with salmon die-off monitoring by collecting more data on water temperature, dissolved oxygen and flow levels for several villages in the Norton Sound Region this summer and next. Also, we would like to work with federal, state city and/or tribal governments, conservation organizations and other stakeholder located to develop rapid assessment capability and understanding watershed responses to extreme events including heavy precipitation and drought conditions. If you need assistance with stream monitoring or are interested in participating in the rapid assessment efforts please contact WPC at hal@waterpolicyconsulting.com or (907)491-1355.
