Climate Change – Page 3 – Water Policy Consulting LLC

Radical transformation of the Pacific Arctic Includes Impacts to Freshwater

Scientists from multiple agencies, working collaboratively to supply data to the Arctic Integrated Ecosystem Research Program, are detecting rapid changes in the Bering and Chukchi Seas. These changes are driven by abnormally high water temperatures and rapid loss of sea ice (on par with climate predictions for 2040), and include high numbers of Pacific cod and pollock expanding into Arctic waters, higher concentrations of harmful algal blooms, and a sea bird die-off that began in 2014 impacting puffins, common murre and, most recently, short-tailed shearwaters. At the base of the food web, larger, high-fat copepods are declining while smaller, copepods with a lower-fat content are flourishing. This means less nutrition for Arctic cod, while, at the same time, more competition for these resources as pollock expand their range northward.

But these troubling changes are not limited to northern ocean waters. Inland, freshwater rivers in the Arctic are overheating. Record-warm temperatures in July, 2019 caused heat stress and a mass die-off in returning, pre-spawned salmon. Read more.

Indigenous Communities are Essential Part of Climate Discussion

Native Village of Elim Staff Collecting Flow Data – Tubutulik River, Western Region, Alaska

A new report released by the People’s Climate Network (PCN)— an alliance of activists, scholars and citizens from around the world, suggests that the role indigenous communities can play in mitigating the climate crisis is being overlooked. While global climate change movements make headlines and ”highly-educated people in far-off cities make policy” the People’s Climate Report, attempts to “amplifying voices from the grassroots.”

The report also highlights coexistence of forests, wildlife and local communities is highlighted to provide the perspective of local communities of the impacts of climate change and extraction industries especially mining. Such development leads to loss of forest cover, depletion of groundwater, increase in net-carbon emissions, changes in local weather patterns, loss of traditional tribal livelihoods and a collapse of various plant and animal species—all in the name of ‘development’.

The report show cases the case of Devi, India in which twenty year earlier, locals took the lead in returning health back to forest ecosystem after mining activity devastated the area. This included groups of mostly women who get up early in the morning to patrol forests in groups and digging pools and making mud dams to conserve water. Now a fully recovered forest with abundant resources including a steady supply of food and water, which has resulted in the return of the animals.

According to the report, “[t]hese natural resource dependent communities are among the poorest of the poor.” “They have not had a single day of formal education. And yet they have been the ones protecting this 200-hectare forest for the past twenty years or so.”

Similarly, Last month Hannah Panci from the Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission spoke at Lawrence University as part of the Spoerl Lecture Series, about climate impact and preparedness. Specifically, Panci discussed working with almost a dozen local Native American tribes, to develop a climate vulnerability assessment which combines both scientific research and traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) in order to create a vulnerability score for different species on tribal lands.

The organization gathers TEK by visiting the various communities, which include members that still make their living off hunting, gathering and fishing, and interviewing community these members about changes they are noticing about fish and wildlife they use for subsistence. Through this process, important information about traditions that have been passed down for generations and which species are the most important to the tribes. According to Panci, two of the main ones are wild rice and walleye, but there are 11 primary species that tribal members are concerned about.

The Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission then applies this information to determine what impacts climate change is having on these species and apply current scientific data to create maps of the region where such impacts are occurring and apply protection measures. By combining conventional science and local knowledge of locals is the best possible means for assisting tribal communities in the Great Lakes to prepare for climate change.

Finally, during a recent event at UC Davis in March 12, professor Beth Rose Middleton who is chair of the Native American Studies Department and Fellow at the John Muir Institute of the Environment, discussed “Tribal Leadership in Climate Change Adaptation.” Professor Middleton discussed the leadership in environmental policy and planning provided by California Indian nations in traditional including land stewardship and interventions in state, national and international policy. Middleton’s research includes Native land trusts, Native-led conservation land acquisitions, tribal participation in the carbon credit market and the importance of re-introducing traditional fire management.

National Ecological Drought Assessment Examines Ecosystem Impacts to Water Deficits

The National Climate Adaption Science Center (NCASC), under the US Geological Survey, has undertaken a nationwide assessment to better understand how droughts impact ecosystems and the people who depend on those ecosystems. Expanding beyond the traditional means of evaluating drought impacts based solely on detriments to agriculture, livestock and hydrology, this study explores drought which encompasses episodic water deficit impacts to whole ecosystems, along with the resulting human impacts.

During the assessment period, NCASC collected and synthesized data across the nation through regional workshops and produced ecological drought factsheets and an interactive map. Current data gaps were identified and an Ecological Drought Working Group was formed in a collaboration between NCASC and the Science for Nature and People Partnership (SNAPP) to assist in risk management going forward.

To learn more about this ongoing project,see: https://wim.usgs.gov/geonarrative/ecologicaldrought/

Five-Year University of Alaska Study Measures Climate-Related Impacts to Coastal Streams and Forest Fire Risks.

An ambitious effort to quantify climate-driven impacts on both glacially-fed coastal ecosystems and Alaska’s fire-prone boreal forest is under way. A new round of funding through the National Science Foundation’s Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) was awarded in October 2018 to collaborating faculty at UAF, UAA and UAS. The 5-year, $20-million-dollar project, entitled Fire and Ice: Navigating Variability in Boreal Wildfire Regimes and Subarctic Coastal Ecosystems, is now prepping for a second summer of field work.

In Kachemak Bay (south-central Alaska) and Lynn Canal (south-eastern Alaska) researchers are evaluating changes in ocean temperature and chemistry in both glacial and non-glacial coastal ecosystems. Stream monitoring, including temperature, sedimentation, and flow measurements began in the spring of 2019 and will continue throughout the granting period. Additionally, researchers are collecting isotope measurements to help identify the sources of water in a given stream (e.g., glacial, snow-melt, groundwater or rainfall). The data will contribute to a greater understanding of the freshwater input into Alaska’s estuarine systems and the effects of continued climate change on these highly-productive ecosystems.

Throughout Alaska’s extensive boreal forest, Fire and Ice researchers are investigating fire activity and associated climate-related impacts. Data will contribute to improved community risk-assessments through modeling to predict lightning probabilities, assess available fuels, and evaluate seasonal climate forecasting in order to better predict fire risks and severity.

EPSCoR’s Fire and Ice project also includes a rigorous education and communications component. To learn more, visit: https://www.alaska.edu/epscor/fire-and-ice/

The Native Village of Elim’s Seward Peninsula Temperature, Dissolved Oxygen and Stream Flow Monitoring Plan

Alaska Native village communities located on the Seward Peninsula region (Villages) rely on healthy watersheds, fish and wildlife for their subsistence needs. At the same time rising temperatures and low snow pack in the region are reeking havoc on the delivery of water when it is most needed. For example, air temperatures in the region, which are rising twice as fast as other places in the country, broke records during the month of July 2019.

These temperature increases are impacting the subsistence livelihoods of the Villages through decreased dissolved oxygen combined with other weather related changes, including low river flows, altered ice flows, and stream bank erosion. In addition, because rivers and streams located within the Western Alaska region are largely fed by snow melt, rising temperatures in the region means rain (instead of snow) is becoming more prominent in the fall and winter. This is resulting in increased seasonal flood events which threaten community infrastructure and scour stream beds used by fish and wildlife.

These sudden changes are impacting fresh water ecosystems during the summer months as well. In 2019 about 22 rivers and streams throughout Alaska reported record water temperatures, as compared to just 7 in 2018. As a result, in June and July 2019, thousands of salmon died as they migrated to spawning grounds in Western Alaska, because the water temperatures exceeded lethal limits for the fish. For example, the Tubulik near Elim and Koyuk had record temperatures as high as 16 degrees centigrad at the Vulcan Creek gage site, 30 miles from the mouth.

These climate related stressors are further exacerbated by non-climate stressors including mining and related development on fish and wildlife populations. Specifically, during 2020, the U.S. Bureau of Land Management will be opening over 46 million acres in 1-3 million acres increments, to mining and other development throughout Alaska. As part of this process, the agency plans to open about 3 million acres covered by the Kobuk-Seward Resource Management Plan (Plan) of BLM Alaska land mineral entry and remove community-supported Areas of Critical Environmental Concern. The Plan, however, does not address the impacts of increasing water temperatures in watersheds affected by land releases and therefore, the combined impacts of climate change and mining development on subsistence resources.

The Native Village of Elim is applying for funding for it’s Tubutulik River Temperature, Dissolved Oxygen (DO) and Stream Flow Monitoring Plan Project is working to develop a climate change risk assessment for the Tubutulik River Watershed (Watershed) that will include: 1) Application of drought and temperature forecasting for the Seward Penninsula to predict instream flows and temperature; 2) Protocols for collection of instream flow, temperature and dissolved oxygen data during the summer season when temperatures are at their highest; 3) Identify lands within the Watershed that include critical fish habitat and potential locateable minerals that have been opened for mining under the Kobuk-Seward Peninsula Resource Management Plan (RMP); 4) Identify a process for applying the modeling and data collected to assist policy makers and land managers to mitigate land uses that potentially exacerbate climate related impacts in the Watershed and 5) Apply for instream flow water rights under Alaska state law on stream reaches in sensitive watersheds that have been open to mining activity.

Once the Assessment is completed, it will serve as an ecosystem-wide vulnerability assessment for natural resource(s) that can be used by multiple tribes as a template for conducting their own modeling, data collection and outreach to federal and state agency land managers. There are multiple sensitive salmon streams and rivers within the RMP planning area that other tribes rely on for subsistence practices that will be impacted by the opening of lands to mining under the RMP. The Assessment will, therefore, specifically benefit the other Village communities located on the Seward Peninsula by assisting in the prediction of instream flows and temperature impacts to salmon and other fisheries, and measures that will result in quantifiable, locally based watershed protection from the potential impacts of climate change and land development.

Endangered Species Protection Sought for Lake Iliamna’s Freshwater Seals

A recent study conducted by scientists from the University of Washington, University of Utah, and University of Alaska Anchorage, concludes that a population of seals found in Lake Iliamna, Alaska’s largest lake, form a distinct, freshwater population. An analysis of the seals’ teeth indicates that the approximately 400 animals depend exclusively on freshwater fish found in the lake, rather than saltwater fish species consumed by other, marine-based, harbor seals. This finding brings the number of known freshwater seal populations around the globe to five.

This distinction has led the Center for Biological Diversity to petition the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to protect the Iliamna population under the Endangered Species Act. Threats to the population, according to the petition, include the proposed Pebble Mine, which would create the largest open-pit copper, gold and molybdenum mine in the state, along with associated infrastructure, including a ferry system across Lake Iliamna, and massive freshwater withdrawals. The proposed mine is located in southwestern Alaska’s Bristol Bay watershed, home to the world’s largest sockeye salmon runs.

To learn more, visit:

Environmentalists seek Endangered Species Act listing for rare Alaska freshwater seals

Arctic Lakes Drain Away as Permafrost Melt Accelerates

Permafrost, which consists of frozen soil, acts like a pond liner, retaining snowmelt and rainfall at the surface. As permafrost thaws, pathways for drainage are created and ponds and lakes diminish in size or drain away all together. In a study by the National Park Service, aerial photos of Alaska’s arctic park lands between 1984 and 2018 indicate significant drainage following years with unusually warm temperatures. Moreover, the rate of lake loss appears to be accelerating. The loss of arctic lakes is impacting area wildlife, including millions of nesting waterfowl that depend on these habitats. The yellow-billed loon is of particular concern, as half of the world’s population of just 10,000 birds spends the summer in the Alaskan arctic, foraging for fish in deeper waters and nesting at the water’s edge.

For more information see: https://www.nps.gov/articles/lostarcticlakes.htm

National Integrated Drought Information System Developing Pacific Northwest DEWS Priorities, Outcomes and Activities for 2020-202

As part of the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and as a means of predicting the extent and impact of drought due to the effects of climate change, the The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) is in the process of improving early warning of drought the Pacific Northwest Drought early warning System (PNW DEWS). The NIDISprogram was authorized by Congress in 2006 (Public Law 109-430) with an interagency mandate to coordinate and integrate drought research, building upon existing federal, tribal, state, and local partnerships in support of creating a national drought early warning information system.

A Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) utilizes new and existing partner networks to optimize the expertise of a wide range of federal, tribal, state, local and academic partners in order to make climate and drought science readily available, easily understandable and usable for decision makers; and to improve the capacity of stakeholders to better monitor, forecast, plan for and cope with the impacts of drought.

NIDIS’ goal is to improve the nation’s capacity to manage drought-related risks by providing the best available information and tools to assess the potential impacts of drought, and to prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought. Toward that end, NIDIS seeks to create a DEWS for the nation.

NIDIS’ approach to building the foundation of a national DEWS has been to develop regional DEWS, where networks of researchers, academics, resource managers, policymakers and other stakeholders share information and actions that help communities cope with drought. Learn more about NIDIS regional DEWS programs here.

About the PNW DEWS Strategic Action Plan:

On October 8, 2019 partners of the Pacific Northwest Drought Early Warning System (PNW DEWS) gathered in Portland, OR to reflect on current issues, past successes, and additional needs for the DEWS region and prioritized activities for the PNW DEWS to focus on in 2020-2022. This information will become part of the next iteration of the Regional Strategic action Plan for the PNW DEWS. The outcomes and activities are organized around the five components of drought early warning 1) Predictions and Forecasting, 2) Observations and Monitoring, 3) Communications and Outreach, 4) Planning and Preparedness, and 5) Interdisciplinary Research and Applications and are meant to address gaps and needs to strengthen drought early warning and preparedness in the PNW region.

According to NIDIS, “These priorities, outcomes and activities…would be a focus of the Pacific Northwest DEWS network over the next three years with the end goal of improving drought early warning and preparedness across the region.” Because the PNW DEWS concludes that “drought and its impacts are slow moving, multifaceted and complex,” stakeholders can combine efforts to take on this challenge using the following DEW strategies to predict stream flow and water supplies impacted by future droughts and high temperatures in the Pacific Northwest:

Improve predicting and forecasting around drought at the national and regional levels through EPIC, the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act, and seasonal-to-subseasonal (S2S) forecasting;
Better observations and monitoring going into, during and coming out of drought including a better understanding of the most relevant metrics temporally, spatially, and by sector for the region as well as improving drought impact reporting and analysis;
Improve communication and public outreach regarding drought information within and outside the region;
Provide drought information early enough to give communities (e.g., municipalities, farmers, ranchers, tribes), sufficient time to plan for and minimize economic damage to products and services;
Improve communication channels between academia, researchers and end users ensure and decision makers regarding early warning, planning and response.

The New Normal of Drought Priorities, Outcomes and Activities for Alaska

Last summer the temperate rain forests communities of southern Alaska were shocked to find themselves experiencing a severe drought. It had been severe since last fall, a shocking turn of events for our beautiful affecting the forest canopy, salmon streams, water reservoirs, and hydropower plants in the form of winter rain, dwindling snow pack, spiking algal toxins, stranded birds, and salmon dying before they could spawn. Although the scale of drought was unprecedented, it was not the first time and it won’t be the last. Mike Brubaker, Editor of the Leo Network newsletter says that “there have been water shortages before in southern Alaska, and drought is becoming more common around the circumpolar north….As we reflect on our own water security, we may also consider the risks of relying too heavily upon past conventions when gauging the likelihood that events repeat in the future.”

Similarly, last October, the Leo Network featured a presentation by Celine van Breukelen, Senior Service Hydrologist with the National Weather Service which focused on how rising temperatures and low snow pack in Alaska, are reeking havoc on the delivery of water when both people and fish and wildlife need it most. The state’s air temperatures, for example, which are rising twice as fast as other places in the country resulted in record breaking average air temperature in 2016 and the month of July 2019.

Also, in the summer and fall of 2019, while, the Southern part of the state experienced very active fire weather season. The Swan Lake fire on Kenai Peninsula which burned most of the summer for example, damaged the line that connects the Bradley Lake hydroelectric plant to the Raibelt cutting off it’s power supply for months. This forced Bradly to scale back operations and will likely raise consumers monthly bills 3% to 5 or increase this winter when people use more electricity.

Similarly, while water shortages for communities and rivers and streams drying up due to drought, the Central region of the state had so much rain that the Army Corps of Engineers had to implement Flood Control measures for the Moose Creek Dam, Chena River Lakes Flood Control Project near Fairbanks and the Army Corp of Engineers is planning to make modifications to the project in order to accommodate ever rising flood waters on the river.

Also, Alaska’s glaciers are disappearing at record levels and since 2002, 60 billion tons of Alaska glacier ice has melted, pouring waters into rising ocean waters. During the second half of September 2019, for example, due to above normal air temperatures resulting in increased glacier melt and the return of rain, the average flows of a little over 100 cubic feet per second (cfs), from the Bradly River into Bradly River dam, on Kachemak Bay located in Southcentral Alaska suddenly shot off the charts to over 500 cfs by the end of the month.

Alaska’s water year typically starts in the Fall when it’s time to start recording snowpack accumulation. The state’s snowpack, however, which has been reduced by 50% in the southern regions, compared to a decade ago, currently develops about a week later in the fall and melts almost two weeks earlier in the spring.

These sudden changes are impacting fresh water ecosystems as well. In 2019 about 22 rivers and streams throughout Alaska reported record water temperatures, as compared to 2018 in which there was just 7. As a result, in June and July 2019, thousands of salmon died as they migrated to spawning grounds in Western Alaska, because the water exceeded lethal limits for the fish. One such river, the Tubulik near Elim and Koyuk had record temperatures at the Vulcan Creek gage site 30 miles from the mouth.

Democratic presidential nominees Oppose Water Privatization

Two front runners in the field of Democratic nominees for the U.S. presidential election appear to be unified on the controversial issue of the privatization of water systems including Elizabeth Warren who released an environmental plan that, among other things, calls for the nation’s water systems to be remain a public resource that should “be owned by and for the public.”

According to the plan “A Warren Administration will end decades of is investment and privatization of our nation’s water system — our government at every level should invest in safe, affordable drinking water for all of us.” The Warren plan includes the need for tighter federal classification of per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances, the reinstatement of the Waters of the United States rule which was eliminated by the Trump administration in order relieve industry from water protection restrictions, and investment into public water system infrastructure.

Warren’s focus on water ethics puts her in line with democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, who advocates for similar protections for water resources in legislation he is sponsoring including the WATER Act which would help municipalities or state agencies bring treatment works back into public ownership and the Green New Deal, which would over haul the country’s approach to environmental issues. “According to Common Dreams. “Months earlier, in November 2018, Sanders gave a forceful rejection of privately controlled water after voters in Baltimore easily passed Question E, which bans the privatization of the municipal water and sewer systems.”

Research on private water systems, suggest that they “put public health at risk, a 66-page paper by University of Louisville law professor Craig Anthony Arnold argues, because the profit motive incentivizes companies to provide better services to customers who pay more and to maintain infrastructure with an eye to the length of the firm’s contract.” The Huffington Post.

While the Warren plan, does indicates that if Warren were to become the next president of the United States, privately-run water systems would become far less common, it does not provide whether or not, as president, she would take action to prevent their formation.