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That “Uncertain Climate Future” has Arrived for Alaska

Salmon Die-Off Tubutulik River

My wife Jessica and I spent a weekend last July in Hope, Alaska in order to get away from computers for a couple of days and enjoy one of our favorite escapes in one of the most picturesque places in the state. As we set up camp, we were alarmed by the number of birch trees with brown leaves. Weeks of drought due to a high pressure system that’s brought record-breaking heat has deflect storm systems farther north, preventing rainfall throughout the Kenai Peninsula and drying out the plant life. During a couple of hikes along the trails outside the campground it was evident that not only the trees had been affected.  Fern, Devils club, fire weed and other plants were shriveled and dying.

While extreme drought is commonplace these days in the lower 48, the phenomenon has been all but unheard-of in Alaska…until this summer. For the second month in a row, at our house, we have been rationing water due to weeks without rain and increasingly diminishing re-charge of a shared well. The drought is similarly affecting Southcentral Alaskan communities that rely on snow pack and rain water for water.

According to a recent article in the Anchorage Daily News, entire forests in Southeast “are falling prey to spruce bark beetles and hemlock sawflys, which are taking advantage of a lack of rainfall and higher than average temperatures.” Similarly, while dry weather has also forced cuts in hydropower production in South central Alaska, an atmospheric river, consisting of a deluge of rain water from the tropical Pacific Ocean, has been drenching northern sections of Alaska and similarly disrupting hydropower and other infrastructure in that area.

The most ominous signs of the inevitable collapse of the Alaska’s Marine ecosystems due to the impacts of climate change has been the national headlines reporting on grey whale and ice seal die-offs and Pacific Walrus using dry land instead of critical sea ice for haul out and feeding grounds. Now we can add freshwater ecosystems to the list in the form of this summer’s salmon die-offs.

In early July, I headed out with a research team from the Native Village of Elim to the Vulcan Creek gage site (30 miles up the Tubutulik River in Western Alaska) to install a new Level & Barrow Logger which collect stream depth and temperature continuously to re-place damaged equipment from a couple of years earlier. There was a pressing need to install the new equipment because we had heard reports just a few days previously of large salmon die-offs in the Shaktoolik and Unalakleet due to temperatures reported to be as high as 70 – 90°F and lower water levels, most likely resulting in low dissolved oxygen in shallow sections of rivers and the suffocation of fish.

As expected, while traveling to the stream flow measuring Gage Site the River, we observed hundreds of otherwise healthy (not spawned-out) dead fish including Pink and Chum salmon and white fish. When we got to the gage site we took temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) readings indicating the water was between 61– 64 degrees and DO as low as 8 milligrams per liter (a healthy stream should be 9 milligrams per liter or higher)  When we returned to the gage site a few weeks later, we collected more data that showed temperature stayed high (around 58-60 degrees for the next several days before dropping down to a more normal 54 degrees.

Wes Jones, Development Director for Research with the Norton Sound Economic Development Corporation’s Fisheries says the scope of the “larger than normal salmon die-off last month covered several communities from east to west in the Norton Sound region” including Kotlik, Elim, Unalakleet, Shaktoolik, Golovin, Kotlik, Alakanuk and Akyak. Jones says that although salmon die-offs often occur naturally, “for this many to die so early in the spawning season could be a tipping point indicating a larger ecosystem shift in the Norton Sound region as a result of warming waters.”

Salmon streams in the Norton Sound region, however, were not the only ones affected by Alaska’s summer of 2019 heat wave.  In early July, temperatures over 81 F were recorded in southcentral Alaska. This resulted,   in salmon spawning stream temperatures exceeding 80 degrees for the first time ever. One such river – the Deshka produces more than 20% of the chinook escapements for the Susitna River watershed which drains the Alaskan Mountain Range.

Other rivers on the Kenai Peninsula similarly set temperature records in July. The Anchor River, for example, was recorded at 73 degrees. For spawning adult salmon or growing juvenile, temperatures above 80 degrees can be lethal, primarily due to the loss of oxygen in the water and the fact that warm water makes fish lethargic and, therefore, susceptible to predation. High temperatures and drought conditions combined with low snow pack this summer, caused the Jackoloff River on the other side of Kachemak Bay from my home to dry up completely for the second time in four yours, resulting in a die-off of Pink salmon returning to spawn and Silver smolts trapped in rapidly diminishing pools of water.

In short, it’s time to stop sugar coating it and accept the fact that Alaska’s freshwater ecosystems are collapsing – and it’s our carbon addicted society that’s causing it. According to Peter Westley, assistant professor of fisheries conservation and fisheries ecology at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, the state’s fish die-off is “directly in line with the predictions of what scientists…have been warning is likely to occur, and we need to prepare ourselves and not be surprised when it happens again in the future, because it will.” Only problem, according to Sue Mauger, Science Director with Cook Inlete Keeper, is that “We’re 50 years ahead of where we thought they would be.”

We should realize that we probably cannot stop the freshwater habitat collapse from occurring but maybe we can slow it down. One strategy comes from Stephanie Quinn-Davison, Director of the Yukon River Inter-Tribal fish commission. who suggests initiating a network of locals from native village communities to monitor temperature, low flows, dissolved oxygen in nearby rivers to try and anticipate salmon die-offs before they occur. Similarly, calling it a “water emergency” for south central Alaska, the Leo Network is tracking impacts from the regional drought and request that Network members post observation to the website. Finally, Michael Ophiem with the Seldovia Village Tribe says that they have begun identifying habitat in the Jackaloff Creek watershed were water levels and temperature are currently adequate for salmon spawning and plan to purchase a wet incubator for out-planting eggs to those areas.

For our part, WPC will continue to assist with salmon die-off monitoring by collecting more data on water temperature, dissolved oxygen and flow levels for several villages in the Norton Sound Region this summer and next. Also, we would like to work with federal, state city and/or tribal governments, conservation organizations and other stakeholder located to develop rapid assessment capability and understanding watershed responses to extreme events including heavy precipitation and drought conditions. If you need assistance with stream monitoring or are interested in participating in the rapid assessment efforts please contact WPC at hal@waterpolicyconsulting.com or (907)491-1355.

 

 

 

Following in the Footsteps of John Wesley Powell

On May 24, 1869, John Wesley Powell and nine other men set off on a momentous expedition into unexplored territory to take scientific measurements and map the Colorado River. This year, on the sesquicentennial of Powell’s adventure, a team of academics, USGS scientists, authors, artists, cartographers, and journalists embarked on the same day, following the same path, for a 70-day journey to celebrate and advance the scientific and cultural discoveries that Powell made 150 years ago. Jessica Lucido, a civil engineer and program manager for the USGS Water Resources Mission Area, will join the expedition from July 5-10, traveling on the Colorado River from Lake Powell, Colo., to Lee’s Ferry, Ariz. (the entrance to the Grand Canyon).

John Wesley Powell served as the second director to the USGS (1881-1894) and spearheaded our streamgaging program 130 years ago. While he lost four men and two boats during his 95-day journey from Green River, Wyo., to the Virgin River near the Arizona-California border, he succeeded in recording some of the earliest known maps, data, topographic and geologic measurements, and documentation of Native American culture. The 1869 expedition greatly advanced the understanding of the “Great Unknown” of the western U.S. and its resources, climate, and community.

Talking up Resilient Arctic Water Infrastructure in Nevada

What was I doing in the plush Nugget Casino in the 90 degree heat of Sparks, Nevada last month talking about improving Water Infrastructure through Resilient Adaptation of Alaska Native Village Communities in the North Bering Sea region? Because while the room full of water Geeks attending the summer specialty conference of the American Water Resources Association, were familiar with all the news coverage about super hurricanes and flooding on the east coast, they probably were not that familiar with the plight of communities in the North Bering Sea region (NBSR) of Alaska who are dealing with similar threats to their water infrastructure.

Arctic communities are have been experiencing increased permafrost melt, loss of sea ice, extreme weather events, flooding and erosion that may make current residences and settlements uninhabitable in the near future. Such communities have another thing in common with coastal cities on the east coast-they are in direct competition for limited federal disaster and hazard mitigation funding to defend against the inevitable march or climate change. In many cases, for example, agencies require cost-benefit analysis, plans, environmental analysis, or other measures above and beyond analysis or strategies contained in Hazard Mitigation Plans (HMPs) or other plans before such communities qualify to apply for funds. Similarly, because standard arctic community HMPs do not contain a detailed cost-benefit analysis of natural hazards affecting water resources, such communities cannot obtain high rankings that larger cities can to qualify for competitive funding or other federal or state assistance needed to address such impacts. Finally, the villages cannot afford to hire consultants or even staff to conduct climate adaption planning on behalf of such communities to include more meaningful consideration of economic impacts and risks associated with coastal water resource management resiliency strategies, in order to move beyond the planning phase and into on the ground project implementation.

During my talk at the conference, therefore, I emphasized the need to conduct economic risk-benefit and environmental analysis and otherwise close the gap between Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and other governmental funding and technical assistance programs such so that North Bering Sea communities can implement on-the-ground projects that will address the Villages’ climate-related coastal water resources management challenges. Hopefully, word will travel to the ears of these agencies so that tribes in the Arctic can move behind the planning phase and into project implementation…something the needs to happen…yesterday.

 

Unique Arctic Freshwaters Biodiversity Threatened by Climate Change, Says Report

According to “The State of the Arctic Freshwater Biodiversity Report,” released by the Arctic Council’s Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna program at the May 7 at the Arctic Council ministerial in Rovaniemi, Finland, the range of species across the area is heading toward a period of dramatic changes including replacement of many fresh water fish by other species venturing in from southern waters. The report urges decision makers related to management of the Arctic fishery habitat to prepare effectively for an uncertain future.

Although in some cases, as Arctic lakes, rivers and wetlands warm [Across the Arctic, lake ice is melting out earlier in the spring], they could experience an increase in species, this shift is expected to come with a reduction in the habitat range of cold-tolerant species usually found in the Arctic, the report said. [High Arctic Char are in a losing battle with climate change]. This will ultimately result in “a net loss of unique Arctic-specific biodiversity,” the report said.

According to the report, some of these changes may induce “sudden biological shifts with strong repercussions.” Non-climate stressors such as long-range transboundary air pollutants and those originating from industrial development and urbanization, fisheries over-harvesting, dams and other forms of development can exacerbate climate related temperature by leading to “substantial habitat fragmentation and destruction.”

The report, among other actions, recommends engaging local communities in monitoring efforts through “citizen science” efforts. The Arctic Council report was released on the heals of ominous warnings by the United Nations human actions threaten more species globally.

The Trump administration continues its push for offshore Arctic oil development

Secretary of the Interior David Bernhardt and Secretary of Commerce Wilbur RossIn U.S. District Court in Anchorage recently, filed notice that they are appealing the March 29 ruling that threw out Trump’s executive action reopening closed Arctic and Atlantic waters to oil leasing.

In that ruling, U.S. District Court Judge Sharon Gleason said Trump violated the law with a 2017 executive order that reversed President Obama’s actions withdrawing most U.S. Arctic waters and portions of the Atlantic Ocean from the federal offshore oil and gas leasing program. Presidents have the right under the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act to withdraw areas from leasing, but adding areas to the leasing program requires Congressional action, Gleason said in her ruling.

The ruling erected a new hurdle to a planned 2019 Beaufort Sea lease sale and threw the Trump administration’s entire five-year leasing plan into question

Trump Administration’s Alaska ANWR Strategy Hits Speed-Bump

Memos drafted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service identifying outdated vegetation maps and studies of the impact of oil development on caribou, insufficient air quality modeling, and studies of the impacts of the development on Polar bears, could expose the Trump administration to litigation. The memos were hidden from public view until environmentalist published them the day before the comment period ended on the Trump administration’s draft study of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

The significance of the USFWS comments are the legal leverage they will provide to environmental groups who have vehemently opposed drilling in ANWR and will not be able to resist the administration’s criticism of it’s own plan to challenge the leasing plan in federal court.

According to Dermat Cole, an Artic Today columnist “It’s ironic that ever since the approval by Congress in late 2017 of oil leasing in ANWR, the biggest threat to oil leasing in ANWR has been the Trump administration. It’s willingness to cut corners to make oil drilling a reality before the next shift in the political winds in Washington, D.C. has come at the expense of the careful analysis required by law.”

Because the Obama administration, did not study the relationship of the issues raised in the comments because there was no chance of oil and gas drilling taking place in ANWR, the lack of such analysis is the primary weakness in the Trump plan.

Yet, the Trump administration has only compounded the potential for legal violations of drilling in ANWR by rushing the drilling proposal through the required rigorous environmental review due to potential threats to water quality and critical habitat, by planning to start auctioning off oil leases within a few months. In record time to assess the complex and potentially irreversible impacts on endangered species including caribou and polar bear, in a recent speech at the annual conference of the Alaska Oil and Gas Association, Joe Balash, Interior’s assistant secretary for land and minerals management said the environmental impact statement for ANWR coastal plain leasing drafted by the Bureau of Land Management, will be followed by a final environmental impact statement “by the end of this summer… And once we have a final EIS we’ll be in a position to issue a record of decision and notice of lease sale. And that lease sale will happen in 2019.”

Pointing out that federal agencies typically take much longer than a few months to address public comments on a draft EIS, Adam Kolton, executive director of the Alaska Wilderness League says that “[i]n the history of environmental reviews, there’s been nothing like this” and that the BLM’s record breaking short timeline for ANWR “They’ll be very vulnerable to legal challenges.

 

Imagine A Day Without Water in the Arctic

The theme of last year’s World Water Day was “Imagine a Day Without Water,” which focused attention on how we would manage for a single day without the many benefits that water brings to our lives. It appears that many coastal communities in Alaska, do not need to “imagine” not having access to running water because they are just one step away from the breaking down of their water systems due to the often intricate relationship of such systems to other critical infrastructure.

A case in point -, to work with the tribal staff on an instream flow data collection project. While waiting for my flight to Nome at the airport in Anchorage, during a business trip to Elim a couple of weeks ago, I received a text from out Project Coordinator, stating that “someone ran into a power pole and the entire village has no electricity or running water.”

While I was staying in the Village and the water was still out, I had a conversation with one of the janitors at the Aniguiin School, who said that once the power line was knocked out, “everything went down like a dominos because without electricity, the water pump blew a fuse. The city ordered a new pump but there’s no telling how long it will take to get here.” At the same time, people couldn’t rely on nearby creeks for drinking water which were frozen due to the temperature being in the teens.

Meanwhile city and school employees were working tirelessly to find back-up water for the school and other critical facilities. Ultimately, it took 5 days for the part to arrive before running water could be restored. But several days later, some were still boiling water because of worries about sanitation.

Last week’s situation in Elim is vivid example of the vulnerability of small Alaska communities to the impacts of climate change on water infrastructure. This winter, for example, the Arctic experienced the warmest March on record, and the second consecutive winter with extremely low levels of ice in the Bering Sea. The unprecedented loss of shoreline sea ice which normally acts a kind of barrier to protect coastal communities in the Arctic, from increasing storm surges means that drinking and other water infrastructure are more vulnerable to flood damage.

Other climate related changes to water resources in Alaska include the earliest recorded breakup for many rivers including the of the Tanana and Kuskokwim. Shorter ice seasons on rivers have profound impacts for the villages which use rivers for their main transportation routes.  As of the end of April this year, for example, around a dozen people died or had to be rescued after their snow machines or 4-wheelers fell through ice that was too thin. When rivers become too dangerous or otherwise, unavailable to use villagers are forced to either not travel at all or to rely on planes or other more expensive alternatives.

In light of the substantial impacts to Arctic coastal communities in the most rapidly warminig state in the country, it’s unfortunate that when asked about his strategy for addressing climate change during the campaign for Governor of Alaska, Mike Dunleavy’s response was “We are not a smokestack state, so we don’t contribute that much to climate change.” Ignoring the fact, therefore, that Alaska is one of the largest oil producing states in U.S., immediately after taking office, Dunleavy eliminated the Climate Action for Alaska Leadership Team established by Gov. Bill Walker, and removed the group’s strategy and action recommendations for helping Alaska Native and other communities adapt to climate change.

According to Dermot Cole, who is a columnist for Arctic Today, scrapping of the Team is a major loss for villages threatened by climate change because many of them “are one major storm away from being wiped out. If and when such a storm strikes, the state will respond — it just won’t be as organized as it could be with a mitigation plan.”

So, with the official response from the Dunleavy administration to impacts of climate change on the Alaska Native and other communities and for planning for the rapid changes coming to the state, being a resounding “We don’t care”, it’s a good thing that communities like Elim are already setting the example for resiliency when the grid actually does go down. Maybe the rest of us should take a page from their book.

This article was re-printed in the May 2, 2019 edition of the Nome Nugget News: http://www.nomenugget.com/sites/default/files/05_02_2019NN_0.pdf

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Criticizes Trump’s Arctic Refuge Drilling Study

In unusually harsh criticism, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service says the Trump Administration failed to adequately consider oil spills, climate change and the welfare of polar bears in its rush to open Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil drilling. The criticism which appeared in written comments filed by the agency stated that Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) failed to consider oil spill response planning, analyze impacts of climate change in the Arctic, require polar bear denning habitat surveys; pointed to substantial information gaps and implied that the agency in charge of drafting the DEIS (the Bureau of Land Management) failed to properly consult with USFWS as required by federal law.

The Fish and Wildlife oversight agency comments come at a time of increasing criticism of the BLM’s proposal to lease 400,000 acres in ANWR which is the largest wildlife sanctuary in the United States and which serves has habitat for multiple species including bears, caribou, lynx and muskox. Because 16 billion barrels of recoverable crude oil reserves also lie underneath the area, it is a major component of President Donald Trump’s “Energy Dominance” strategy.

Not only do the USFWS comments illustrates that even federal agency’s are starting to resist the administration’s rush to develop resources in the Arctic at the expense of environmental laws but, like the rest of Trump Arctic drilling campaign, the flawed permitting process which includes an order from the President that the National Environmental Policy Act process be completed within one year and the Final EIS be no more than 150 pages, may result in litigation. Such shortcutting of a process which is intended to be thorough and normally takes years and thousands of pages of documentation, can mean the failure to fully analyze significant impacts, tribal consultation and coordination will be inadequate, important scientific data will be ignored, and the public notice and comment process will be negatively impacted.

U.S. Supreme Court Tells Alaska Moose Hunter to “Rev Up Your Engine!”

The U.S. Supreme Court, recently, ruled in favor of John Sturgeon who sued the National Park Service in 2007, after rangers on the Yukon-Charley Rivers National Preserve  told him he could not use a hovercraft for hunting moose on the Nation River near the Canadian border. While the Park claimed it had jurisdiction to manage navigable waters inside park boundaries, the state which which allows hovercrafts, joined in the law suit and maintained that it had the right to manage waters within the state including those of such rivers.

When in the Spring of 2019,  the U.S. Supreme Court made it’s decision it concluded that, for the purposes of the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act, the Nation River does not qualify as “public land” and, therefore, that the park service does not have authority to regulate Sturgeon’s activities on that part of the river found within the preserve. According to the Court “[t]hat means Sturgeon can again rev up his hovercraft in search of moose.”

Despite worries from tribal interests, that the Sturgeon litigation would reverse decades of  legal precedents for federal subsistence fishing rights in Alaska, the Katie John case was kept intact by a single footnote buried in the middle of the 46-page ruling which stated that the Katie John is “not at issue in this case, and we therefore do not disturb the Ninth Circuit’s holdings that the Park Service may regulate subsistence fishing on navigable waters.” As a result, immediately after the ruling was issued, the Alaska Federation of Native’s largely supported the decision stating “[o]ur Board previously approved two principles related to the case: private landowner’s access to – and use of – inholdings within conservation system units; and no net loss to subsistence rights. This ruling accomplishes both.”

In apparent agreement with AFN, Alaska’s congressional delegation said that the Court upheld “promises made to Alaskans in ANILCA” limiting the NPS rights over state and native lands and praised the decision for not over turning Katie John.

The decision could also impact other rivers in the state which could be interpreted as navigable waters and therefore, under the state, rather than the federal jurisdiction. Concurring opinions from Justices Sonia Sotomayor and Ruth Bader Ginsburg pointed out that the majority decision raises uncertainty about what remains of the park service’s authority over navigable waters in Alaska’s parks.