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National Integrated Drought Information System Developing Pacific Northwest DEWS Priorities, Outcomes and Activities for 2020-202

As part of the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and as a means of predicting the extent and impact of drought due to the effects of climate change, the The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) is in the process of  improving early warning of drought the Pacific Northwest Drought early warning System (PNW DEWS). The NIDISprogram was authorized by Congress in 2006 (Public Law 109-430) with an interagency mandate to coordinate and integrate drought research, building upon existing federal, tribal, state, and local partnerships in support of creating a national drought early warning information system.

A Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) utilizes new and existing partner networks to optimize the expertise of a wide range of federal, tribal, state, local and academic partners in order to make climate and drought science readily available, easily understandable and usable for decision makers; and to improve the capacity of stakeholders to better monitor, forecast, plan for and cope with the impacts of drought.

NIDIS’ goal is to improve the nation’s capacity to manage drought-related risks by providing the best available information and tools to assess the potential impacts of drought, and to prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought. Toward that end, NIDIS seeks to create a DEWS for the nation.

NIDIS’ approach to building the foundation of a national DEWS has been to develop regional DEWS, where networks of researchers, academics, resource managers, policymakers and other stakeholders share information and actions that help communities cope with drought. Learn more about NIDIS regional DEWS programs here.

About the PNW DEWS Strategic Action Plan:

On October 8, 2019 partners of the Pacific Northwest Drought Early Warning System (PNW DEWS) gathered in Portland, OR to reflect on current issues, past successes, and additional needs for the DEWS region and prioritized activities for the PNW DEWS to focus on in 2020-2022. This information will become part of the next iteration of the Regional Strategic action Plan for the PNW DEWS. The outcomes and activities are organized around the five components of drought early warning 1) Predictions and Forecasting, 2) Observations and Monitoring, 3) Communications and Outreach, 4) Planning and Preparedness, and 5) Interdisciplinary Research and Applications and are meant to address gaps and needs to strengthen drought early warning and preparedness in the PNW region.

According to NIDIS, “These priorities, outcomes and activities…would be a focus of the Pacific Northwest DEWS network over the next three years with the end goal of improving drought early warning and preparedness across the region.” Because the PNW DEWS concludes that “drought and its impacts are slow moving, multifaceted and complex,” stakeholders can combine efforts to take on this challenge using the following DEW strategies to predict stream flow and water supplies impacted by future droughts and high temperatures in the Pacific Northwest:

  • Improve predicting and forecasting around drought at the national and regional levels through EPIC, the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act, and seasonal-to-subseasonal (S2S) forecasting;
  • Better observations and monitoring going into, during and coming out of drought including a better understanding of the most relevant metrics temporally, spatially, and by sector for the region as well as improving drought impact reporting and analysis;
  • Improve communication and public outreach regarding drought information within and outside the region;
  • Provide drought information early enough to give communities (e.g., municipalities, farmers, ranchers, tribes), sufficient time to plan for and minimize economic damage to products and services;
  • Improve communication channels between academia, researchers and end users ensure and decision makers regarding early warning, planning and response.

The New Normal of Drought Priorities, Outcomes and Activities for Alaska

 

Last summer the temperate rain forests communities of southern Alaska were shocked to find themselves experiencing a severe drought. It had been severe since last fall, a shocking turn of events for our beautiful affecting the forest canopy, salmon streams, water reservoirs, and hydropower plants in the form of winter rain, dwindling snow pack, spiking algal toxins, stranded birds, and salmon dying before they could spawn. Although the scale of drought was unprecedented, it was not the first time and it won’t be the last. Mike Brubaker, Editor of the Leo Network newsletter says that “there have been water shortages before in southern Alaska, and drought is becoming more common around the circumpolar north….As we reflect on our own water security, we may also consider the risks of relying too heavily upon past conventions when gauging the likelihood that events repeat in the future.”

Similarly, last October, the Leo Network featured a presentation by Celine van Breukelen, Senior Service Hydrologist with the National Weather Service which focused on how rising temperatures and low snow pack in Alaska, are reeking havoc on the delivery of water when both people and fish and wildlife need it most. The state’s air temperatures, for example, which are rising twice as fast as other places in the country resulted in record breaking average air temperature in 2016 and the month of July 2019.

Also, in the summer and fall of 2019, while, the Southern part of the state experienced  very active fire weather season. The Swan Lake fire on Kenai Peninsula which burned most of the summer for example, damaged the line that connects the Bradley Lake hydroelectric plant to the Raibelt cutting off it’s power supply for months.  This forced Bradly to scale back operations and will likely raise consumers monthly bills 3% to 5 or increase this winter when people use more electricity.

Similarly, while water shortages for communities and rivers and streams drying up due to drought,  the Central region of the state had so much rain that the Army Corps of Engineers had to implement Flood Control measures for the Moose Creek Dam, Chena River Lakes Flood Control Project near Fairbanks and the Army Corp of Engineers is planning to make modifications to the project in order to accommodate ever rising flood waters on the river.

Also, Alaska’s glaciers are disappearing at record levels and since 2002, 60 billion tons of Alaska glacier ice has melted, pouring waters into rising ocean waters. During the second half of September 2019, for example, due to above normal air temperatures resulting in increased glacier melt and the return of rain, the average flows of a little over 100 cubic feet per second (cfs), from the Bradly River into Bradly River dam, on Kachemak Bay located in Southcentral Alaska suddenly shot off the charts to over 500 cfs by the end of the month.

Alaska’s water year typically starts in the Fall when it’s time to start recording snowpack accumulation. The state’s snowpack, however, which has been reduced by 50% in the southern regions, compared to a decade ago, currently develops about a week later in the fall and melts almost two weeks earlier in the spring.

These sudden changes are impacting fresh water ecosystems as well. In 2019 about 22 rivers and streams throughout Alaska reported record water temperatures, as compared to 2018 in which there was just 7. As a result, in June and July 2019, thousands of salmon died as they migrated to spawning grounds in Western Alaska, because the water exceeded lethal limits for the fish. One such river, the Tubulik near Elim and Koyuk had record temperatures at the Vulcan Creek gage site 30 miles from the mouth.

Murkowski Meets with Villages on Graphite One Mine

Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski, recently, visited the Alaska Native village of Brevig Mission on the Seward Peninsula to, in part, to talk about the Villages concerns regrading the proposed Graphite One mine located at the base of the Kigluak Mountain range 15 miles east of the village.

Murkowski along with the Trump administration, is an ardent supporter of developing, so-called, “critical minerals” including graphite designated in 2018 as essential to the U.S. economy and national security.

At the same time, subsistence resources upon which Alaska Natives, and who greatly assisted Murkowski’s re-election during her write-in campaign in 2010 when tea party candidate Joe Miller threatened to end her political career, be besting her in the Republican primary and, are often, severely impacted by mining and other development projects the senator is proposing.

So, during a packed community meeting at Brevig Mission, she explained that “While you need the resource, you have to avoid environmental degradation,” Graphite is a highly desired commodity that the world is interested in.

As a result, stating that “You are the ones who have the most knowledge on the ground right now,” Murkowski, encourged residents of both Brevig Mission and nearby Teller to continue to speak out about  their concerns known as the project moves forward.

She offered similar remarks later in the day while addressing the residents of Teller, another Native village that lies 7 miles down the coast and is closer to the proposed mine site, where locals also brought up the project.

While Murkowski is traditionally a powerful advocate for development of oil and gas and timber, there are indications that she is weakening her stance on mining. Regarding the controversial Pebble mine for example, due to potentially significant impacts on the sockeye salmon population in nearby Bristol Bay, Murkowski has highlighted the need for a thorough assessment of environmental impacts of the Mine,

While she maintains that Graphite One is different because it would have a lot smaller footprint, Murkowski says “You can’t treat the people that live there as just people that get in the way of your project,” Murkowski said. “This is their land. And you have to gain that permission and that social license to operate. So Graphite One is going to have some work to do.”

Democratic presidential nominees Oppose Water Privatization

Two front runners in the field of Democratic nominees for the U.S. presidential election appear to be unified on the controversial issue of the privatization of water systems including Elizabeth Warren who released an environmental plan that, among other things, calls for the nation’s water systems to be remain a public resource that should “be owned by and for the public.”

According to the plan “A Warren Administration will end decades of is investment and privatization of our nation’s water system — our government at every level should invest in safe, affordable drinking water for all of us.” The Warren plan includes the need for tighter federal classification of per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances, the reinstatement of the Waters of the United States rule which was eliminated by the Trump administration in order relieve industry from water protection restrictions, and investment into public water system infrastructure.

Warren’s focus on water ethics puts her in line with democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, who advocates for similar protections for water resources in legislation he is sponsoring including the WATER Act which would help municipalities or state agencies bring treatment works back into public ownership and the Green New Deal, which would over haul the country’s approach to environmental issues. “According to Common Dreams. “Months earlier, in November 2018, Sanders gave a forceful rejection of privately controlled water after voters in Baltimore easily passed Question E, which bans the privatization of the municipal water and sewer systems.”

Research on private water systems, suggest that they “put public health at risk, a 66-page paper by University of Louisville law professor Craig Anthony Arnold argues, because the profit motive incentivizes companies to provide better services to customers who pay more and to maintain infrastructure with an eye to the length of the firm’s contract.” The Huffington Post.

While the Warren plan, does indicates that if Warren were to become the next president of the United States, privately-run water systems would become far less common, it does not provide whether or not,  as president, she would take action to prevent their formation.

Unprecedented Numbers of Pink Pacific salmon are showing up in the Arctic

In the latest indication of the rapidly warming waters in the western Arctic, Pink salmon were recently caught in the western Nunavut waters of Cambridge Bay. According to Karen Dunmall, an aquatic biologist with Fisheries and Oceans Canada, due to diminishing sea ice, Pacific salmon have been following food sources, which include plankton to jellyfish, shrimp and smaller fish. This is another indication that climate change, which results in thinner sea and fresh water ice that forms later and breaks up earlier, warmer rivers, milder winters, longer summers and changes in wildlife and vegetation, is affecting the Arctic more dramatically than anywhere on the globe. It’s n across the Arctic

In total, the Arctic research salmon program estimates that in 2019 roughly 2,000 salmon samples have been provided to them – almost triple the number from 19 years of monitoring harvesters and this number appears to be rising.

Similarly, Pink salmon have spread to parts of northern Europe after being released into rivers in Russia in the 1960s. Unprecedented numbers of the fish were found in Scottish rivers in 2017 and they were seen again in 2019 on the Dee which flows through Aberdeenshire, the Tweed which passes through the Borders, Kyle of Sutherland which is an estuary in the east Highlands and the River Ness which flows through Inverness and into Loch Ness when in September, a lone male was captured on one of our underwater surveillance cameras.”

Fishery managers in Scotland are concerned that the Pinks which are voracious eaters and which have already become established in rivers and streams in Norway, could colonize Scottish rivers and out compete native Atlantic .

Removal of Protections of Salmon Habitat in Bristol Bay Surrounded by Controversy

 

Stating that by withdrawing safeguards for Bristol Bay in order to pave the way for development of the Pebble Mine, “the [Environmental Protection Agency] has handicapped its own scientists’ ability to protect a place” that the agency itself, has described, as having “unparalleled ecological value, boasting salmon diversity and productivity unrivaled anywhere in North America,” several groups representing Bristol Bay tribes and fishermen filed a lawsuit in federal district court in Anchorage in an effort to force the agency to restore the protections.

The Plaintiffs, including the United Tribes of Bristol Bay, Bristol Bay Native Association – a consortium of 31 tribes, the Bristol Bay Regional Seafood Development Association and Bristol Bay Reserve Association, two groups representing fishermen, and the Bristol Bay Economic Development Corp., a nonprofit promoting economic growth, have asked the federal district court in Anchorage to decide that the revocation of the 2014 determination made under the Clean Water Act, was arbitrary and capricious. The 40-page complaint states that, in withdrawing the 2014 proposed determination, EPA “failed to consider the substantive findings it made in support” of the determination that the Mine could cause significant harm to the environment.

According to Ralph Andersen who is the chief executive of BBNA, regarding the lawsuit, the Trump “administration not only broke the law, it made clear that local people have no voice in the management of our rivers, our streams and wetlands,… But the people of Bristol Bay are not pushovers.”

Shortly after the lawsuite was filed, Earthworks, a Washington-based advocacy group, filed a complaint with the New Jersey Bureau of the Securities and Exchange Commission to investigate related to Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. – the Pebble Mine parent company possible insider trading. According to the complaint there was flurry of stock trades and communication in the days prior to the decision to revoke EPA’s section 401© certification that substantially improved the prospects for the Mine as indicated by price of the company’s stocks raising dramatically after the EPA’s decision was publicly announced last summer. A spokesman for Northern Dynasty called the allegations “entirely false and without merit” and denied any wrongdoing by the company.

Some Alaska villages don’t need to ‘imagine a day without water’

Shishmaref, Alaska

The opinion piece below appeared in the October 24, 2019 edition of Arctic Today.

Every year, the national “Imagine a Day without Water” campaign raises awareness and educates Americans about the value of water in everyday life.

In October 2019, the campaign’s theme emphasized imagining “No water to drink, or even to make coffee with. No water to shower, flush the toilet, or do laundry…Some communities in America already know how impossible it is to try to go a day without our most precious resource: Water.” There are five villages in the Bering Sea region including Stebbins, Teller, Wales, Diomede and Shishmaref, that fit this description perfectly because most homes in these villages have never had running water.

Each of them have various strategies for compensating for the lack of running water. Shishmaref, for example, collects snow over the winter into a catchment and drains the melted water into a lined pond. The water is filtered and then pumped into a 1.3 million gallon tank. The water catchment needs a new liner and a transfer line but the Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium — an Anchorage based entity that provides funding for municipal water and sewer, doesn’t have the money to upgrade it. Diomede needs $50,000 to make improvements to its water system and in the meantime, in order to obtain access to fresh water for drinking, the majority of people, use rainwater or ice water.

At a rate of a quarter per gallon, the Wale’s school and teachers’ housing which are supported by Bering Straits School District and the health clinic are the only facilities that can afford treated running water but the rest of the community goes without. For sewage disposal, the village stages bins in various locations throughout the community where people dump their honey buckets. The bins are collected and hauled out to a lagoon where they are dumped.

Due to a lack of infrastructure, Shishmaref, Diomede, and Wales are on the Environmental Protection Agency’s list of drinking water systems that are over the limits for what EPA has deemed to be safe for humans for arsenic, nitrates, uranium, and other contaminants. Even those Alaska villages with adequate water infrastructure still have occasional issues with access to running water. After someone ran into a power pole with a backhoe in Elim (located in the Norton Sound region) last spring, the municipal water pump blew a fuse due to the lack of electricity, and the entire village had no electricity or running water for almost a week while the city waited for a new pump.

So far, Bering Sea communities haven’t been able to get much assistance in establishing water infrastructure from the federal or state government.

While the Trump administration recently adopted a $1.5 trillion plan to rebuild the countries crumbling water infrastructure including in small communities, for example, the plan includes a mere $200 billion in federal funds while the remaining $1.3 trillion would come from sources that those communities would need to come up with. Because many small communities generally don’t have access to those kinds of funds they would need to turn to private investors to develop or rehabilitate water infrastructure giving those investors too much control over what has traditionally been a public resource.

Similarly, in order to cut spending or pave the way for oil and gas development in Alaska, so far, Governor Mike Dunleavy’s focus on Arctic communities is to veto legislation or cut existing programs designed to protect human health and welfare or that would have helped build resiliency to the ravages of climate change.

One of the only politicians who has paid any attention to the appalling lack of water infrastructure for Arctic communities, is Senator Lisa Murkowski who after a visit last summer to Teller, Brevig Mission and Wales stated “we know the costs here are so high it can literally take every dollar for water and wastewater projects.”

However, Senator Murkowski may also be missing an opportunity to incorporate adequate water infrastructure for Arctic village communities in her recently revealed plans to reintroduce the Shipping and Environmental Arctic Leadership Act (SEAL Act). The act is intended to shore up infrastructure that could take advantage of increased shipping and exploitation of resources in the Bering Sea area, but it does not include developing adequate water infrastructure for Arctic communities.

It seems that whenever, federal or state policy makers talk about the Arctic, these days, the emphasis is on taking advantage of a warming temperatures and melting sea ice to exploit rather than protect local communities or the environment.

n so doing, we are continuing to leave many such communities way behind.

Hal Shepherd is a consultant and writer on water policy issues living in Homer, Alaska.

Whales, Seals, Salmon and Walrus Die-offs Indicate Collapsing Arctic Ecosystem

On August 1, Greenland lost more than 12 billion tons of ice in a single day. Due to a heatwave the struck Greenland last week, Greenland ice sheet lossed of 197 Gigatonnes in July alone is enough to raise sea levels by half a millimeter.

Alaska is also on the front lines of climate change where July 2019 set a record for the state’s hottest month on record. Scorching temperatures illustrate that not only, are humans, for better or worse, making history but because sea ice in the Arctic is critical to life, we are witnesses to the first visible signs of a collapsing arctic ecosystem including gray whale, ice seal, salmon and reindeer die-offs.

Temperature also impacts arctic marine habitat through melting sea-ice. According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the July heat wave in Alaska contributed to continued melting of Arctic sea ice which reached a record low in July. According to the NSIDC, since 1979, September sea ice extent has declined 12.8 percent per decade.

Sea ice is critical to Pacific walruses who use it for resting between the search for food and for rearing their young. The Unprecedented loss of ice in the Chukchi Sea, this summer, however, once again, forced Pacific walrus to congregate on Alaska’s ice free northwestern coastlines and away from the important off-shore food-foraging areas.

While walrus, sometimes congregating in the tens of thousands, they have been hauling out on the beach at Point Lay, Alaska almost every year since 2007, due to the disappearance of their usual sea ice habitat. According to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, thousands of walruses hauled out on the beach in late July – the earliest ever. The walrus congregations can number in the tens of thousands, with up to 40,000 animals estimated at a time.

Drought Cases Community Water Shortages in Southeast and Southcentral Alaska

The community water supply of the Village of Nanwalek, located within the Kachemak  Bay watershed,  was impacted by drought in Southcentral Alaska over the past month requiring the village to have water flown in to off-set the water shortage. Late last month, the village’s reservoir was drying out so rapidly, that the city had to shut the water off at 9 pm every night and leave it off until 9am every morning.

As the water situation continued to deteriorate, a member of the Nanwalek city council searched for an alternate potable water source on Google Earth and located one on nearby St. John Mountain. Then the city dug a trench from the new water sources to the city’s reservoir so the new source could replenish the reservoir. After a month with out rain, on August 20 it finally came to Nanwalek and the village is waiting to see if rain and new water supply will address the water shortage for now.

According to the Leo Network Newsletter for August, as of the end of August, the Kachemak Bay Mountain Range that surrounds Nanwalek was devoid of snow pack and the “total precipitation June 1 to August 20, is only 1.01 inches, far below the average of over six inches for June – August.”

Similarly, dry weather and low snowpack have reduced the amount of water in Lily Lake which is the main source of water for the town of Haines, to historically low levels this summer. The municipal water department is working around the clock to keep water flowing down the line. But the amount of water in the lake is not keeping up with demand.

Dry conditions and Limited Snow Pack Cause Another Fish Die-off in Jackaloff Creek  

 

In the end of August myself, my wife Jessica and our neighbors were dropped off at the Jakolof Bay public boat dock by the water Taxi with our sea kayaks. We paddled to the head of the Bay where we beached the kayaks to walk a short way up the mouth of Jakolof Creek, to view several pools full of stranded Pink Salmon and some minnows probably Coho Smolts resulting from extremely dry conditions in the Kachemak Bay Watershed this summer.  After leaving the mouth we walked along the road to the Red Mountain trail head until it connected with the Creek again about 2/3 of a mile up from the mouth were the Creek was bone dry for as far as the eye could see.

Unusually hot and dry weather this year as resulted in Jakolof Creek running completely dry starting in mid-July all the way up to the switchbacks and is still receding. Similarly, portions of nearby Kingfisher Creek are currently running dry.

As of this writing, all that remains of the creeks are intermittent pools of water containing stranded Coho smolt and some pinks, dogs, and Dolly Varden which are dying in these rapidly receding pools. Some small bears, eagles, and other birds are feeding on these fish but there are still many that are not getting used. According to Michael Ophiem, environmental program Director for the Seldovia Village Tribe: “We will certainly see the damage done in the upcoming years. This run of fish has been used for a resource for those who live in the area for many years. Some people who don’t have access to boats to get to other fishing sites are more heavily reliant on this run than others.”

This is the second time in 4 years that Jakolof Creek has dried up resulting in a mass die-off of all of the fish in the system at the time. Because streams within the Kachemak Bay Watershed are primarily fed by snow melt, they are extremely sensitive to winters with little snow and followed by  hot dry summers which, like Jackolof can result in no water being available at critical times for fish and wildlife or too much water during winter months that can cause flooding or scouring of stream beds.

According to Micheal Brubaker, Editer of the Leo Network newsletter in regards to the Creek, “another year with a lost generation of salmon and other fish. The one difference this year is that the returns (at least so far) of pinks are smaller and the creek appears to have dried up two weeks earlier. This raises concerns not only about the future of this stream as a salmon spawning location but also about food security for the area….”